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A Novel Large-Scale Temperature Dominated Model for Predicting the End of the Growing Season
- Source :
- PLoS ONE, Vol 11, Iss 11, p e0167302 (2016), PLoS ONE
- Publication Year :
- 2016
- Publisher :
- Public Library of Science (PLoS), 2016.
-
Abstract
- Vegetation phenology regulates many ecosystem processes and is an indicator of the biological responses to climate change. It is important to model the timing of leaf senescence accurately, since the canopy duration and carbon assimilation are strongly determined by the timings of leaf senescence. However, the existing phenology models are unlikely to accurately predict the end of the growing season (EGS) on large scales, resulting in the misrepresentation of the seasonality and interannual variability of biosphere–atmosphere feedbacks and interactions in coupled global climate models. In this paper, we presented a novel large-scale temperature dominated model integrated with the physiological adaptation of plants to the local temperature to assess the spatial pattern and interannual variability of the EGS. Our model was validated in all temperate vegetation types over the Northern Hemisphere. The results indicated that our model showed better performance in representing the spatial and interannual variability of leaf senescence, compared with the original phenology model in the Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS). Our model explained approximately 63% of the EGS variations, whereas the original model explained much lower variations (coefficient of determination R2 = 0.01–0.18). In addition, the differences between the EGS reproduced by our model and the MODIS EGS at 71.3% of the pixels were within 10 days. For the original model, it is only 26.1%. We also found that the temperature threshold (TcritTm) of grassland was lower than that of woody species in the same latitudinal zone.
- Subjects :
- 0106 biological sciences
Leaves
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences
lcsh:Medicine
Plant Science
Forests
Atmospheric sciences
01 natural sciences
Trees
lcsh:Science
Northern Hemisphere
Multidisciplinary
Geography
Ecology
Phenology
Plant Anatomy
Temperature
Biosphere
Plants
Adaptation, Physiological
Terrestrial Environments
Grasslands
Seasons
Research Article
Climate Change
Plant Development
Climate change
Growing season
010603 evolutionary biology
Ecosystems
medicine
Plant Communities
Ecosystem
Plant Physiological Phenomena
0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Plant Ecology
Ecology and Environmental Sciences
lcsh:R
Organisms
Biology and Life Sciences
Primary production
Models, Theoretical
Seasonality
medicine.disease
Earth sciences
Physical Geography
Environmental science
Common spatial pattern
lcsh:Q
Shrubs
Geographic areas
Subjects
Details
- ISSN :
- 19326203
- Volume :
- 11
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- PLOS ONE
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....d3e341c6731b8252c1799d7de0d92fcd