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Prediction models for the risk of new-onset hypertension in ethnic Chinese in Taiwan
- Source :
- Journal of Human Hypertension. 25:294-303
- Publication Year :
- 2010
- Publisher :
- Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 2010.
-
Abstract
- Prediction model for hypertension risk in Chinese is still lacking. We aimed to propose prediction models for new-onset hypertension for ethnic Chinese based on a prospective cohort design on community, which recruited 2506 individuals (50.8% women) who were not hypertensive at the baseline (1990-91). Total 1029 cases of new-onset hypertension developed during a median of 6.15 (interquartile range, 4.04-9.02) years of follow-up. In the clinical model, gender (2 points), age (8 points), body mass index (10 points), systolic blood pressure (19 points) and diastolic blood pressure (7 points) were assigned. The biochemical measures, including white blood count (3 points), fasting glucose (1 point), uric acid (3 points), additional to above clinical variables, were constructed. The areas under the receiver operative characteristic curves (AUCs) were 0.732 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.712-0.752) for the point-based clinical model and 0.735 (95% CI, 0.715-0.755) for the point-based biochemical model. The coefficient-based models had a good performance (AUC, 0.737-0.741). The point-based clinical model had a similar net reclassification improvement as the coefficient-based clinical model (P=0.30), and had a higher improvement than the point-based biochemical model (P=0.015). We concluded that the point-based clinical model could be considered as the first step to identify high-risk populations for hypertension among Chinese.
- Subjects :
- Adult
Male
medicine.medical_specialty
Taiwan
Blood Pressure
Body Mass Index
Cohort Studies
Asian People
Risk Factors
Interquartile range
Internal medicine
Internal Medicine
medicine
Humans
Prospective Studies
Prospective cohort study
Aged
Models, Statistical
business.industry
Ethnic chinese
Middle Aged
Confidence interval
Surgery
Blood pressure
Area Under Curve
Hypertension
Female
business
Body mass index
Predictive modelling
Cohort study
Subjects
Details
- ISSN :
- 14765527 and 09509240
- Volume :
- 25
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- Journal of Human Hypertension
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....d555af4f11e5ec9b89a9d713c719ece5