Discriminating invasive adenocarcinoma among lung pure ground-glass nodules: a multi-parameter prediction model

BACKGROUND: Patients with consistent lung pure ground-glass nodules (pGGNs) have a high incidence of lung adenocarcinoma that can be classified as adenocarcinoma in situ (AIS), minimally invasive adenocarcinoma (MIA), or invasive adenocarcinoma (IAC). Regular follow-up is recommended for AIS and MIA, while surgical resection should be considered for IAC. This study sought to develop a multi-parameter prediction model to increase the diagnostic accuracy in discriminating between IAC and AIS or MIA. METHODS: The training data set comprised consecutive patients with lung pGGNs who underwent resection from January to December 2017 at the Zhongshan Hospital. Of the 370 resected pGGNs, 344 were pathologically confirmed to be AIS, MIA, or IAC and were included in the study. The 26 benign pGGNs were excluded. We compared differences in the clinical features (e.g., age and gender), the content of serum tumor biomarkers, the computed tomography (CT) parameters (e.g., nodule size and the maximal CT value), and the morphologic characteristics of nodules (e.g., lobulation, spiculation, pleura indentation, vacuole sign, and normal vessel penetration or abnormal vessel) between the pathological subtypes of AIS, MIA, and IAC. An abnormal vessel was defined as “vessel curve” or “vessel enlargement”. Statistical analyses were performed using the chi-square test, analysis of variance (ANOVA), and rank test. The IAC prediction model was constructed via a multivariate logistical regression. Our prediction model for lung pGGNs was further validated in a data set comprising consecutive patients from multiple medical centers in China from July to December 2018. In total, 345 resected pGGNs were pathologically diagnosed as lung adenocarcinoma in the validation data set. RESULTS: In the training data set, patients with pGGNs ≥10 mm in size had a high incidence (74.5%) of IAC. The maximal CT value of IAC [–416.1±121.2 Hounsfield unit (HU)] was much higher than that of MIA (–507.7±138.0 HU) and AIS (–602.6±93.3 HU) (P