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De-Escalation by Reversing the Escalation with a Stronger Synergistic Package of Contact Tracing, Quarantine, Isolation and Personal Protection: Feasibility of Preventing a COVID-19 Rebound in Ontario, Canada, as a Case Study
- Source :
- Biology, Volume 9, Issue 5, Biology, Vol 9, Iss 100, p 100 (2020)
- Publication Year :
- 2020
-
Abstract
- Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, most Canadian provinces have gone through four distinct phases of social distancing and enhanced testing. A transmission dynamics model fitted to the cumulative case time series data permits us to estimate the effectiveness of interventions implemented in terms of the contact rate, probability of transmission per contact, proportion of isolated contacts, and detection rate. This allows us to calculate the control reproduction number during different phases (which gradually decreased to less than one). From this, we derive the necessary conditions in terms of enhanced social distancing, personal protection, contact tracing, quarantine/isolation strength at each escalation phase for the disease control to avoid a rebound. From this, we quantify the conditions needed to prevent epidemic rebound during de-escalation by simply reversing the escalation process.
- Subjects :
- 0301 basic medicine
Isolation (health care)
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)
Biology
pandemics
General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology
Article
law.invention
03 medical and health sciences
0302 clinical medicine
law
Quarantine
030212 general & internal medicine
lcsh:QH301-705.5
General Immunology and Microbiology
reopening
COVID-19
physical and social distancing relaxation
030104 developmental biology
lcsh:Biology (General)
Demographic economics
Reversing
Detection rate
General Agricultural and Biological Sciences
Contact tracing
De-escalation
mathematical model
Ontario canada
Subjects
Details
- ISSN :
- 20797737
- Volume :
- 9
- Issue :
- 5
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- Biology
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....dc1a70282c84c7e2769f73e21254e519