Quality adjusted survival analysis

We present a technique, quality adjusted survival analysis, for the analysis of controlled trials where patients may experience several health states which differ in their quality of life. When the data are censored, a survival analysis of the quality adjusted life years achieved may involve informative censoring, and produce biased estimates. To overcome this, we partition the survival curve; the resulting areas, which represent the mean time in each state, are multiplied by utility weights to provide an unbiased estimate of (restricted) quality adjusted survival. If the appropriate weights are in doubt, the results are best presented as a threshold analysis over the utility weights, allowing individual recommendation to be read from a simple graph. The certainty of the conclusions can be presented as confidence bands on the threshold line. The techniques are illustrated with a re-analysis of a large three-arm trial of adjuvant chemoendocrine therapy for stage II breast cancer in postmenopausal women. This shows that if the value of time spent in toxicity is greater than the time spent in relapse, we can be 95 per cent confident that chemoendocrine therapy is the preferred option.