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Observing many researchers using the same data and hypothesis reveals a hidden universe of uncertainty
- Source :
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 119(44):e2203150119. National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 119(44):e2203150119. NATL ACAD SCIENCES, Breznau, N, Rinke, E M, Wuttke, A, Nguyen, H H V, Adem, M, Adriaans, J, Alvarez-Benjumea, A, Andersen, H K, Auer, D, Azevedo, F, Bahnsen, O, Balzer, D, Bauer, G, Bauer, P C, Baumann, M, Baute, S, Benoit, V, Bernauer, J, Berning, C, Berthold, A, Bethke, F S, Biegert, T, Blinzler, K, Blumenberg, J N, Bobzien, L, Bohman, A, Bol, T, Bostic, A, Brzozowska, Z, Burgdorf, K, Burger, K, Busch, K B, Carlos-Castillo, J, Chan, N, Christmann, P, Connelly, R, Czymara, C S, Damian, E, Ecker, A, Edelmann, A, Eger, M A, Ellerbrock, S, Forke, A, Forster, A, Gaasendam, C, Gavras, K, Gayle, V, Gessler, T, Merhout, F, Schaeffer, M & The Crowdsourced Replication Inititative 2022, ' Observing many researchers using the same data and hypothesis reveals a hidden universe of uncertainty ', Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, vol. 119, no. 44, 2203150119 . https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2203150119, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA, 119, 44, Breznau, Nate; Rinke, Eike Mark; Wuttke, Alexander; Nguyen, Hung H. V.; Adem, Muna; Adriaans, Jule; Alvarez-Benjumea, Amalia; Andersen, Henrik K.; Auer, Daniel; Azevedo, Flavio; Bahnsen, Oke; Balzer, Dave; Bauer, Gerrit; Bauer, Paul C.; Baumann, Markus; Baute, Sharon; Benoit, Verena; Bernauer, Julian; Berning, Carl; Berthold, Anna; ... (2022). Observing many researchers using the same data and hypothesis reveals a hidden universe of uncertainty. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America-PNAS, 119(44), e2203150119. National Academy of Sciences NAS 10.1073/pnas.2203150119
- Publication Year :
- 2022
- Publisher :
- Umeå universitet, Sociologiska institutionen, 2022.
-
Abstract
- This study explores how researchers' analytical choices affect the reliability of scientific findings. Most discussions of reliability problems in science focus on systematic biases. We broaden the lens to emphasize the idiosyncrasy of conscious and unconscious decisions that researchers make during data analysis. We coordinated 161 researchers in 73 research teams and observed their research decisions as they used the same data to independently test the same prominent social science hypothesis: that greater immigration reduces support for social policies among the public. In this typical case of social science research, research teams reported both widely diverging numerical findings and substantive conclusions despite identical start conditions. Researchers' expertise, prior beliefs, and expectations barely predict the wide variation in research outcomes. More than 95% of the total variance in numerical results remains unexplained even after qualitative coding of all identifiable decisions in each team's workflow. This reveals a universe of uncertainty that remains hidden when considering a single study in isolation. The idiosyncratic nature of how researchers' results and conclusions varied is a previously underappreciated explanation for why many scientific hypotheses remain contested. These results call for greater epistemic humility and clarity in reporting scientific findings. ispartof: PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA vol:119 issue:44 ispartof: location:United States status: published
- Subjects :
- Data Analysis
IDEAS
MetaArXiv|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Political Science
researcher degrees of freedom
300 Social sciences, sociology & anthropology
Social Policy
PREFERENCES
Outcome (game theory)
Inequality, cohesion and modernization
bepress|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Political Science
Credibility
SUPPORT
Soziologie, Sozialwissenschaften
HA Statistics
Ongelijkheid, cohesie en modernisering
uncertainty
Reliability (statistics)
media_common
bepress|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Other Social and Behavioral Sciences
bepress|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Psychology
MetaArXiv|Social and Behavioral Sciences
Multidisciplinary
analytical flexibility
Uncertainty
Ambiguity
Variance (accounting)
immigration and policy preferences
Research Personnel
Test (assessment)
bepress|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Sociology
MetaArXiv|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Psychology
ddc:300
Annan samhällsvetenskap
crowdsourcing
Psychology
noise
H Social Sciences (General)
Process (engineering)
bepress|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Economics
media_common.quotation_subject
Politikwissenschaft
metascience, many analysts, researcher degrees of freedom, analytical flexibility, immigration and policy preferences
Crowdsourcing
metascience
many analysts
REDISTRIBUTION
WELFARE-STATE
MetaArXiv|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Other Social and Behavioral Sciences
320 Political science
Humans
Sociologi (exklusive socialt arbete, socialpsykologi och socialantropologi)
Other Social Sciences
MetaArXiv|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Sociology
business.industry
Sociology (excluding Social Work, Social Psychology and Social Anthropology)
Reproducibility of Results
Tvärvetenskapliga studier inom samhällsvetenskap
Data science
IMMIGRATION
MetaArXiv|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Economics
meta- science
ddc:000
bepress|Social and Behavioral Sciences
Social Sciences Interdisciplinary
300 Sozialwissenschaften::300 Sozialwissenschaften, Soziologie::300 Sozialwissenschaften
business
ANALYSTS
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 00278424
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 119(44):e2203150119. National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 119(44):e2203150119. NATL ACAD SCIENCES, Breznau, N, Rinke, E M, Wuttke, A, Nguyen, H H V, Adem, M, Adriaans, J, Alvarez-Benjumea, A, Andersen, H K, Auer, D, Azevedo, F, Bahnsen, O, Balzer, D, Bauer, G, Bauer, P C, Baumann, M, Baute, S, Benoit, V, Bernauer, J, Berning, C, Berthold, A, Bethke, F S, Biegert, T, Blinzler, K, Blumenberg, J N, Bobzien, L, Bohman, A, Bol, T, Bostic, A, Brzozowska, Z, Burgdorf, K, Burger, K, Busch, K B, Carlos-Castillo, J, Chan, N, Christmann, P, Connelly, R, Czymara, C S, Damian, E, Ecker, A, Edelmann, A, Eger, M A, Ellerbrock, S, Forke, A, Forster, A, Gaasendam, C, Gavras, K, Gayle, V, Gessler, T, Merhout, F, Schaeffer, M & The Crowdsourced Replication Inititative 2022, ' Observing many researchers using the same data and hypothesis reveals a hidden universe of uncertainty ', Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, vol. 119, no. 44, 2203150119 . https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2203150119, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA, 119, 44, Breznau, Nate; Rinke, Eike Mark; Wuttke, Alexander; Nguyen, Hung H. V.; Adem, Muna; Adriaans, Jule; Alvarez-Benjumea, Amalia; Andersen, Henrik K.; Auer, Daniel; Azevedo, Flavio; Bahnsen, Oke; Balzer, Dave; Bauer, Gerrit; Bauer, Paul C.; Baumann, Markus; Baute, Sharon; Benoit, Verena; Bernauer, Julian; Berning, Carl; Berthold, Anna; ... (2022). Observing many researchers using the same data and hypothesis reveals a hidden universe of uncertainty. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America-PNAS, 119(44), e2203150119. National Academy of Sciences NAS 10.1073/pnas.2203150119 <http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2203150119>, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA, 119, Breznau, N, Rinke, E M, Wuttke, A, Nguyen, H H V, Adem, M, Adriaans, J, Alvarez-Benjmea, A, Andersen, H K, Auer, D, Azevedo, F, Bahnsen, O, Balzer, D, Bauer, G, Bauer, P C, Baumann, M, Baute, S, Benoit, V, Bernauer, J, Berning, C, Berthold, A, Bethke, F S, Biegert, T, Blinzler, K, Blumenberg, J N, Bobzien, L, Bohman, A, Bol, T, Bostic, A, Brzozowska, Z, Burgdorf, K, Burger, K, Busch, K B, Carlos-Castillo, J, Chan, N, Christmann, P, Connelly, R, Czymara, C S, Damian, E, Ecker, A, Edelmann, A, Eger, M A, Ellerbrock, S, Forke, A, Forster, A, Gaasendam, C, Gavras, K, Gayle, V, Gessler, T, Gnambs, T, Godefroidt, A, Grömping, M, Groß, M, Gruber, S, Gummer, T, Hadjar, A, Heisig, J P, Hellmeier, S, Heyne, S, Hirsch, M, Hjerm, M, Hochman, O, Hövermann, A, Hunger, S, Hunkler, C, Huth, N, Ignácz, Z S, Jacobs, L, Jacobsen, J, Jaeger, B, Jungkunz, S, Jungmann, N, Kauff, M, Kleinert, M, Klinger, J, Kolb, J-P, Kołczyńska, M, Kuk, J, Kunißen, K, Sinatra, D K, Langenkamp, A, Lersch, P M, Löbel, L-M, Lutscher, P, Mader, M, Madia, J E, Malancu, N, Maldonado, L, Marahrens, H, Martin, N, Martinez, P, Mayerl, J, Mayorga, O J, McManus, P, McWagner, K, Meeusen, C, Meierrieks, D, Mellon, J, Merhout, F, Merk, S, Meyer, D, Micheli, L, Mijs, J, Moya, C, Neunhoeffer, M, Nüst, D, Nygård, O, Ochsenfeld, F, Otte, G, Pechenkina, A O, Prosser, C, Raes, L, Ralston, K, Ramos, M R, Roets, A, Rogers, J, Ropers, G, Samuel, R, Sand, G, Schachter, A, Schaeffer, M, Schieferdecker, D, Schlueter, E, Schmidt, R, Schmidt, K M, Schmidt-Catran, A, Schmiedeberg, C, Schneider, J, Schoonvelde, M, Schulte-Cloos, J, Schumann, S, Schunck, R, Schupp, J, Seuring, J, Silber, H, Sleegers, W, Sonntag, N, Staudt, A, Steiber, N, Steiner, N, Sternberg, S, Stiers, D, Stojmenovska, D, Storz, N, Striessnig, E, Stroppe, A-K, Teltemann, J, Tibajev, A, Tung, B, Vagni, G, Van Assche, J, van der Linden, M, van der Noll, J, Van Hootegem, A, Vogtenhuber, S, Voicu, B, Wagemans, F, Wehl, N, Werner, H, Wiernik, B M, Winter, F, Wolf, C, Yamada, Y, Zhang, N, Ziller, C, Zins, S & Żółtak, T 2022, ' Observing many researchers using the same data and hypothesis reveals a hidden universe of uncertainty ', Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 119, no. 44, pp. 1-8 . https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2203150119, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 119(44):e2203150119. NATL ACAD SCIENCES
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....dd485d3a9f6709e07a75ec7947f8be63
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2203150119