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Monte Carlo approach to fuzzy AHP risk analysis in renewable energy construction projects
- Source :
- PLoS ONE, PLoS ONE, Vol 14, Iss 6, p e0215943 (2019)
- Publication Year :
- 2018
-
Abstract
- The construction of large renewable energy projects is characterized by the great uncertainties associated with their administrative complexity and their constructive characteristics. For proper management, it is necessary to undertake a thorough project risk assessment prior to construction. The work presented in this paper is based on a hierarchical risk structure identified by a group of experts, from which a Probabilistic Fuzzy Sets with Analysis Hierarchy Process (PFSAHP) was applied. This probabilistic analysis approach used expert opinion based on the Monte Carlo Method that allows for extracting more information from the original data. In addition, the coherence of the experts' opinions is assessed using a novel parameter known as Confidence Level, which allows for adjusting the opinions of experts and weighting their judgments regarding impact and probability according to their coherence. This model has the advantage of offering a risk analysis in the early stages of the management of renewable energy projects in which there is no detailed information. This model is also more accurate than the classic fuzzy methodology when working with complete distribution functions, whilst it avoids the loss of information that results from the traditional mathematical operations with Fuzzy numbers. To test the model, it was applied to a 250 MW photovoltaic solar plant construction project located in southeast of Spain (Region of Murcia). As a result of the application of the proposed method, risk rankings are obtained with respect to the cost, the time, the scope and from a general point of view of the project.
- Subjects :
- Statistical methods
Computer science
Economics
Monte Carlo method
Social Sciences
Theft
02 engineering and technology
Criminology
Sociology
Risk analysis (business)
0202 electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering
Fuzzy number
Multidisciplinary
Project risk management
Statistics
Built Structures
Physical sciences
Risk analysis (engineering)
Photovoltaic Power
Medicine
Engineering and Technology
020201 artificial intelligence & image processing
Alternative Energy
Crime
Research Article
Structural Engineering
020209 energy
Science
Fuzzy set
Fuzzy logic
Risk Assessment
Fuzzy Logic
Solar Energy
Probabilistic analysis of algorithms
Renewable Energy
Probabilistic logic
Confidence interval
Weighting
Energy and Power
Research and analysis methods
Spain
Public Finance
Money Supply and Banking
Mathematical and statistical techniques
Mathematical Functions
Mathematics
Finance
Subjects
Details
- ISSN :
- 19326203
- Volume :
- 14
- Issue :
- 6
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- PloS one
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....dd8c5a5a28c2f4db42dc1119d581c2bd