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The conditional probabilities of survival in patients with anaplastic astrocytoma or glioblastoma multiforme
- Source :
- Surgical neurology. 60(5)
- Publication Year :
- 2003
-
Abstract
- Background By the use of conditional probabilities of survival, we studied the yearly survival rates for individual tumor survivors. Methods Conditional survival rate was estimated in 114 consecutive patients with anaplastic astrocytoma or glioblastoma multiforme. Conditional probabilities of surviving some years given survival to a specific period of time after craniotomy and 95% confidence intervals were calculated in the individual tumor survivors. Results The estimated median survival was 30 months for 45 patients with anaplastic astrocytoma and 12 months for 69 patients with glioblastma multiforme. The conditional probabilities of surviving next one year given survival to 1 year, 2 years, 3 years, 4 years, or 5 years after craniotomy for anaplastic astrocytoma were 86.2%, 75.0%, 85.9%, 77.8%, or 85.7%, respectively; for glioblastoma multiforme 64.8%, 58.7%, 85.7%, 80.0%, or 75.0%, respectively. The conditional probability of surviving to 5 years given survival to 2 years after craniotomy for anaplastic astrocytoma, i.e., surviving an additional 3 years, was 50.1%, which was better than observed 5-year survival rate (28.6%); for glioblastoma multiforme it was 40.2%, which also was better than observed 5-year survival rate (12.4%). Conclusions The conditional probability of survival was a good method to clinically predict yearly survival rate for indi-vidual tumor survivors. In addition, the method can estimate the probabilities of surviving next some years given survival to a specific period of time after craniotomy. It also showed a more encouraging result than observed survival rate in patients with supratentorial malignant astrocytomas.
- Subjects :
- Oncology
Adult
Male
medicine.medical_specialty
medicine.medical_treatment
Taiwan
Astrocytoma
Internal medicine
medicine
Odds Ratio
Humans
Survival rate
Craniotomy
Survival analysis
Aged
Retrospective Studies
business.industry
Supratentorial Neoplasms
Retrospective cohort study
Odds ratio
Middle Aged
medicine.disease
Survival Analysis
Confidence interval
Surgery
Survival Rate
Female
Neurology (clinical)
business
Glioblastoma
Anaplastic astrocytoma
Subjects
Details
- ISSN :
- 00903019
- Volume :
- 60
- Issue :
- 5
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- Surgical neurology
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....e52b58af563f521f399d063a8c13cef3