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Trade-offs between ecosystem service provision and the predisposition to disturbances: a NFI-based scenario analysis
- Source :
- Forest Ecosystems, Vol 7, Iss 1, Pp 1-17 (2020)
- Publication Year :
- 2020
- Publisher :
- Elsevier BV, 2020.
-
Abstract
- Background Scenario analyses that evaluate management effects on the long-term provision and sustainability of forest ecosystem services and biodiversity (ESB) also need to account for disturbances. The objectives of this study were to reveal potential trade-offs and synergies between ESB provision and disturbance predisposition at the scale of a whole country. Methods The empirical scenario model MASSIMO was used to simulate forest development and management from years 2016 to 2106 on 5086 sample plots of the Swiss National Forest Inventory (NFI). We included a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and four scenarios of increased timber harvesting. Model output was evaluated with indicators for 1) ESB provision including a) timber production, b) old-growth forest characteristics as biodiversity proxies and c) protection against rockfall and avalanches and 2) for a) storm and b) bark beetle predisposition. Results The predisposition indicators corresponded well (AUC: 0.71–0.86) to storm and insect (mostly bark beetle) damage observations in logistic regression models. Increased timber production was generally accompanied with decreased predisposition (storm: >−11%, beetle: >−37%, depending on region and scenario), except for a scenario that promoted conifers where beetle predisposition increased (e.g. + 61% in the Southern Alps). Decreased disturbance predisposition and decreases in old-growth forest indicators in scenarios of increased timber production revealed a trade-off situation. In contrast, growing stock increased under BAU management along with a reduction in conifer proportions, resulting in a reduction of beetle predisposition that in turn was accompanied by increasing old-growth forest indicators. Disturbance predisposition was elevated in NFI plots with high avalanche and rockfall protection value. Conclusions By evaluating ESB and disturbance predisposition based on single-tree data at a national scale we bridged a gap between detailed, stand-scale assessments and broader inventory-based approaches at the national scale. We discuss the limitations of the indicator framework and advocate for future amendments that include climate-sensitive forest development and disturbance modelling to strengthen decision making in national forest policy making.
- Subjects :
- 0106 biological sciences
Bark beetle
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences
Biodiversity
kestävä metsätalous
010603 evolutionary biology
01 natural sciences
Scenario analysis
Ecosystem services
valtakunnan metsien inventointi
häiriöt
Empirical model
lcsh:QH540-549.5
Forest ecology
empirical model
Ecosystem
forest inventory
Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics
0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Nature and Landscape Conservation
disturbance
Ecology
biology
Agroforestry
metsänkäsittely
Logging
metsäsuunnittelu
Forestry
Disturbance
scenario analysis
skenaariot
biology.organism_classification
ekosysteemipalvelut
Sustainability
Environmental science
lcsh:Ecology
mallit (mallintaminen)
ecosystem services
Forest inventory
Subjects
Details
- ISSN :
- 21975620
- Volume :
- 7
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- Forest Ecosystems
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....e9122460e7321d9c69e797db9b6d75cc