Risk estimation for biliary tract cancer: Development and validation of a prognostic score

Background & Aims Biliary tract cancer is a rare tumour entity characterized by a poor prognosis. We aimed to identify prognostic factors and create a prognostic score to estimate survival. Methods Clinical data of the training set, consisting of 569 patients treated from 2000 to 2010 at Hannover Medical School, were analysed. A prognostic model defining three prognostic risk groups was derived from Cox regression analyses. The score was applied and validated in an independent cohort of 557 patients from four different German centres. Results Median overall survival (OS) was 14.5 months. If complete resection was performed, the patients had a significantly improved OS (23.9 months; n=242) as compared to patients with non-resectable tumours (9.1 months; n=329, P