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Incorporating cold-air pooling into downscaled climate models increases potential refugia for snow-dependent species within the Sierra Nevada Ecoregion, CA
- Source :
- PLoS ONE, Vol 9, Iss 9, p e106984 (2014), Wildland Resources Faculty Publications, PLoS ONE
- Publication Year :
- 2014
- Publisher :
- Public Library of Science (PLoS), 2014.
-
Abstract
- We present a unique water-balance approach for modeling snowpack under historic, current and future climates throughout the Sierra Nevada Ecoregion. Our methodology uses a finer scale (270 m) than previous regional studies and incorporates cold-air pooling, an atmospheric process that sustains cooler temperatures in topographic depressions thereby mitigating snowmelt. Our results are intended to support management and conservation of snow-dependent species, which requires characterization of suitable habitat under current and future climates. We use the wolverine (Gulo gulo) as an example species and investigate potential habitat based on the depth and extent of spring snowpack within four National Park units with proposed wolverine reintroduction programs. Our estimates of change in spring snowpack conditions under current and future climates are consistent with recent studies that generally predict declining snowpack. However, model development at a finer scale and incorporation of cold-air pooling increased the persistence of April 1st snowpack. More specifically, incorporation of cold-air pooling into future climate projections increased April 1st snowpack by 6.5% when spatially averaged over the study region and the trajectory of declining April 1st snowpack reverses at mid-elevations where snow pack losses are mitigated by topographic shading and cold-air pooling. Under future climates with sustained or increased precipitation, our results indicate a high likelihood for the persistence of late spring snowpack at elevations above approximately 2,800 m and identify potential climate refugia sites for snow-dependent species at mid-elevations, where significant topographic shading and cold-air pooling potential exist.
- Subjects :
- Male
Atmospheric Science
Climate
lcsh:Medicine
Wind
California
Atmospheric Dynamics
lcsh:Science
Conservation Science
Climatology
Multidisciplinary
Ecology
Air
Life Sciences
Adaptation, Physiological
Cold Temperature
Habitat
Refugium
Female
Seasons
Research Article
Computer Modeling
Computer and Information Sciences
Conservation of Natural Resources
Climate Change
Climate change
Biology
Ecosystems
Ecoregion
Meteorology
Mustelidae
Animals
Precipitation
Ecosystem
Models, Statistical
Ecology and Environmental Sciences
lcsh:R
Biology and Life Sciences
Computational Biology
Correction
Geomorphology
Snowpack
Snow
Atmospheric Physics
Snowmelt
Earth Sciences
Climate model
lcsh:Q
Physical geography
Ecosystem Modeling
Climate Modeling
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 19326203
- Volume :
- 9
- Issue :
- 9
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- PLoS ONE
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....ea9e1cdd4f200c70ceacf21a407da7cd