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Estimating the Attack Ratio of Dengue Epidemics under Time-varying Force of Infection using Aggregated Notification Data
- Source :
- Scientific Reports
- Publication Year :
- 2015
- Publisher :
- Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 2015.
-
Abstract
- Quantifying the attack ratio of disease is key to epidemiological inference and Public Health planning. For multi-serotype pathogens, however, different levels of serotype-specific immunity make it difficult to assess the population at risk. In this paper we propose a Bayesian method for estimation of the attack ratio of an epidemic and the initial fraction of susceptibles using aggregated incidence data. We derive the probability distribution of the effective reproductive number, R t , and use MCMC to obtain posterior distributions of the parameters of a single-strain SIR transmission model with time-varying force of infection. Our method is showcased in a data set consisting of 18 years of dengue incidence in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. We demonstrate that it is possible to learn about the initial fraction of susceptibles and the attack ratio even in the absence of serotype specific data. On the other hand, the information provided by this approach is limited, stressing the need for detailed serological surveys to characterise the distribution of serotype-specific immunity in the population.<br />Comment: 11 pages, 3 figures
- Subjects :
- FOS: Computer and information sciences
0301 basic medicine
Time Factors
Computer science
030231 tropical medicine
Population
Force of infection
Dengue virus
medicine.disease_cause
Statistics - Applications
Article
Dengue fever
Dengue
03 medical and health sciences
symbols.namesake
Bayes' theorem
0302 clinical medicine
Statistics
medicine
Humans
Computer Simulation
Applications (stat.AP)
Serotyping
Epidemics
Quantitative Biology - Populations and Evolution
education
Population Density
education.field_of_study
Multidisciplinary
Data Collection
Incidence
Populations and Evolution (q-bio.PE)
Bayes Theorem
Markov chain Monte Carlo
Dengue Virus
Models, Theoretical
medicine.disease
030104 developmental biology
FOS: Biological sciences
symbols
Probability distribution
Algorithms
Brazil
Subjects
Details
- ISSN :
- 20452322
- Volume :
- 5
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- Scientific Reports
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....ebbaa8399d9291cf76050d4d06a4c39f