Knowledge challenges of the geoprospective approach applied to territorial resilience

Chapter Outline 3.1 Introduction 57 3.2 Territorial resilience through the systemic prism 58 3.2.1 Systemic resilience and complexity 58 3.2.2 What lessons for the resilience of territories? 60 3.3 New questionings 61 3.3.1 Going deeper into the relation between territorial sustainability and resilience 61 3.3.2 Reexamining the link between resilience, adaptation, and adaptivity 62 3.3.3 Going deeper into the role of the spatial dimension in resilience 64 3.4 Spatial change and resilience seen through the prism of geoprospective 65 3.4.1 Spatiotemporal trajectory and propensity to change 66 3.4.2 Anticipating the early-warning signs of change 67 3.4.3 Anticipating the occurrence of tensions through anticipative monitoring 67 3.4.4 Detecting a territory’s adaptive capacity 68 3.4.5 Anticipating the functioning of a territory on the long term using simulation 70 3.5 Resilience of forms and urban geoprospective 71 3.5.1 From the controllable city to the complex city 72 3.5.2 Implications for planning and the need of a geoprospective approach 73 3.5.3 Resilience as a response to unknowable futures 74 3.5.4 Morphological resilience to urban change 75 3.6 Conclusion 79 References 80