Preadaptation of pandemic GII.4 noroviruses in hidden virus reservoirs years before emergence

The control of pandemic pathogens depends on early prediction of pandemic variants and, more generally, understanding origins of such variants and factors that drive their global spread. This is especially important for GII.4 norovirus, where vaccines under development offer promise to prevent hundreds of millions of annual gastroenteritis cases. Previous studies have suggested that new GII.4 pandemic viruses evolve from previous pandemic variants through substitutions in the antigenic region of the VP1 protein that enable evasion of host population immunity, leading to global spread. In contrast, we show here that the acquisition of new genetic and antigenic characteristics is not the proximal driver of new pandemics. Instead, pandemic GII.4 viruses circulate undetected for years before causing a new pandemic, during which time they diversify and spread over wide geographical areas. Serological data demonstrate that by 2003, some nine years before it emerged as a new pandemic, the ancestral 2012 pandemic strain had already acquired the antigenic characteristics that allowed it to evade prevailing population immunity against the previous 2009 pandemic variant. These results provide strong evidence that viral genetic changes are necessary but not sufficient for GII.4 pandemic spread. Instead, we suggest that it is changes in host population immunity that enable pandemic spread of an antigenically-preadapted GII.4 variant. These results indicate that predicting future GII.4 pandemic variants will require surveillance of currently unsampled reservoir populations. Furthermore, a broadly acting GII.4 vaccine will be critical to prevent future pandemics.SignificanceNorovirus pandemics and their associated public health and economic costs could be prevented by effective vaccines. However, vaccine development and distribution will require identification of the sources and drivers of new pandemics. We here use phylogenetics and serological experiments to develop and test a new hypothesis of pandemic norovirus emergence. We find that pandemic noroviruses preadapt, diversify and spread worldwide years prior to emergence, strongly indicating that genetic changes are necessary but not sufficient to drive a new pandemic. We instead suggest that changes in population immunity enable pandemic emergence of a pre-adapted low-level variant. These findings indicate that prediction of new pandemics will require surveillance of under-sampled virus reservoirs and that norovirus vaccines will need to elicit broad immunity.