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Predicting the probability of survival in acute paraquat poisoning
- Source :
- Kidney Research and Clinical Practice, Kidney Research and Clinical Practice, Vol 35, Iss 2, Pp 102-106 (2016)
- Publication Year :
- 2015
-
Abstract
- Background Paraquat (PQ) concentration–time data have been used to predict prognosis for 3 decades. The aim of this study was to find a more accurate method to predict the probability of survival. Methods This study included 788 patients with PQ poisoning who were diagnosed using plasma PQ concentration between January 2005 and August 2012. We divided these patients into 2 groups (survivors vs. nonsurvivors), compared their clinical characteristics, and analyzed the predictors of survival. Results The mean age of the included patients was 57 years (range, 14–95 years). When we compared clinical characteristics between survivors (n = 149, 19%) and nonsurvivors (n = 639, 81%), survivors were younger (47 ± 14 years vs. 59 ± 16 years) and had lower plasma PQ concentrations (1.44 ± 8.77 μg/mL vs. 80.33 ± 123.15 μg/mL) than nonsurvivors. On admission, serum creatinine was lower in survivors than in nonsurvivors (0.95 ± 0.91 mg/dL vs. 1.88 ± 1.27 mg/dL). In multivariate logistic regression analysis, age and logarithmically converted serum creatinine [ln(Cr)], [ln(time)], and [ln(PQ)] were assessed as prognostic factors to predict survival in PQ poisoning. The predicted probability of survival using significant prognostic factors was exp (logit)/[1 + exp(logit)], where logit = –1.347 + [0.212 × sex (male = 1, female = 0)] + (0.032 × age) + [1.551 × ln(Cr)] + [0.391 × ln(hours since ingestion)] + [1.076 × ln(plasma PQ μg/mL)]. With this equation, the sensitivity and specificity were 86.5% and 98.7%, respectively. Conclusion Age, ln(Cr), ln(time), and ln(PQ) were important prognostic factors in PQ poisoning, and our equation can be helpful to predict the survival in acute PQ poisoning patients.
- Subjects :
- 0301 basic medicine
Paraquat
medicine.medical_specialty
lcsh:Internal medicine
lcsh:Specialties of internal medicine
Urology
010501 environmental sciences
Logistic regression
01 natural sciences
Gastroenterology
Toxicology
03 medical and health sciences
chemistry.chemical_compound
lcsh:RC581-951
Internal medicine
medicine
lcsh:RC31-1245
0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Creatinine
business.industry
Mean age
Prognosis
PARAQUAT POISONING
Logistic models
030104 developmental biology
chemistry
Nephrology
Original Article
Probability of survival
business
Subjects
Details
- ISSN :
- 22119132
- Volume :
- 35
- Issue :
- 2
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- Kidney research and clinical practice
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....f189b5e4758ab031a4a8fb68d62c1f1a