Relative and Absolute Sensitivity Analysis on Ozone Production in Tsukuba, a City in Japan

The change in the ozone production rate on reducing its precursors, namely, ozone production sensitivity, is important information for developing a strategy to reduce ozone. We expanded a conventional sensitivity analysis theory by including peroxy radical loss by uptake onto particle surfaces in the aim of examining their potential impact. We also propose a new concept of absolute sensitivity that enables us to evaluate the quantitative effectiveness of precursor reduction toward mitigating ozone production over a given period and area. This study applies the theory to observations in Tsukuba, a city in Japan. The relative sensitivity analysis shows that ozone production was more sensitive to volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in the morning and evening, and it became more sensitive to NOx in the afternoon. NO depletion was a main trigger in this sensitivity regime transition. The absolute sensitivity analysis indicates that the VOC-sensitive period in the morning determines the total ozone production sensitivity in a day. While particles did not have significant impact on regime classification in Tsukuba, they have a potential to decrease the mitigating effect of VOC reduction on ozone production and to moderate the enhancement effect of NOx reduction depending upon uptake coefficients. A further study will benefit from a combination with an observation-constrained box model simulation or chemical transport modeling system, which may provide sensitivity analysis over a large spatial and temporal range.