Back to Search
Start Over
The Impact of Disease Control Measures on the Spread of COVID-19 in the Province of Sindh, Pakistan
- Source :
- PLoS ONE, Vol 16, Iss 11, p e0260129 (2021), Usmani, B A, Khan, M A, Hasan, M A, Siddiqui, A R, Siddiqi, S, Lim, A G & Qazi, S A 2021, ' The impact of disease control measures on the spread of COVID-19 in the province of Sindh, Pakistan ', PLoS ONE, vol. 16, no. 11, e0260129, pp. 1-13 . https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0260129, PLoS ONE, PLoS ONE, Vol 16, Iss 11 (2021)
- Publication Year :
- 2021
- Publisher :
- Public Library of Science (PLoS), 2021.
-
Abstract
- The province of Sindh reported the first COVID-19 case in Pakistan on 26th February 2020. The Government of Sindh has employed numerous control measures to limit its spread. However, for low-and middle-income countries such as Pakistan, the management protocols for controlling a pandemic are not always as definitive as they would be in other developed nations. Given the dire socio-economic conditions of Sindh, continuation of province-wise lockdowns may inadvertently cause a potential economic breakdown. By using a data driven SEIR modelling framework, this paper describes the evolution of the epidemic projections because of government control measures. The data from reported COVID-19 prevalence and google mobility is used to parameterize the model at different time points. These time points correspond to the government’s call for advice on the prerequisite actions required to curtail the spread of COVID-19 in Sindh. Our model predicted the epidemic peak to occur by 18th June 2020 with approximately 3500 reported cases at that peak, this projection correlated with the actual recorded peak during the first wave of the disease in Sindh. The impact of the governmental control actions and religious ceremonies on the epidemic profile during this first wave of COVID-19 are clearly reflected in the model outcomes through variations in the epidemic peaks. We also report these variations by displaying the trajectory of the epidemics had the control measures been guided differently; the epidemic peak may have occurred as early as the end of May 2020 with approximately 5000 reported cases per day had there been no control measures and as late as August 2020 with only around 2000 cases at the peak had the lockdown continued, nearly flattening the epidemic curve.
- Subjects :
- 2019-20 coronavirus outbreak
Viral Diseases
Asia
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)
Infectious Disease Control
Epidemiology
Science
Social Sciences
COVID-19 modeling
Infectious Disease Epidemiology
Cultural Anthropology
Geographical Locations
Medical Conditions
Sociology
Diagnostic Medicine
Pandemic
Medicine and Health Sciences
Humans
Pakistan
Public and Occupational Health
Socioeconomics
China
Pandemics
data-driven models
Virus Testing
Government
data simulation
Multidisciplinary
government control measures
Outbreak
COVID-19
Covid 19
data fitting
basic reproductive number
Disease control
Government Programs
Religion
Geography
Infectious Diseases
Anthropology
People and Places
impact
Medicine
SEIR
Developed country
Research Article
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 19326203
- Volume :
- 16
- Issue :
- 11
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- PLoS ONE
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....f2afaa5df8e0e22cf143079b04fd5159