A similar effect of P16 hydroxymethylation and true-methylation on the prediction of malignant transformation of oral epithelial dysplasia: observation from a prospective study

Background Total P16 methylation (P16M), including P16 hydroxymethylation (P16H) and true-P16M, correlates with malignant transformation of oral epithelial dysplasia (OED). Both true-P16M and P16H are early events in carcinogenesis. The aim of this study is to prospectively determine if discrimination of true-P16M from P16H is necessary for prediction of cancer development from OEDs. Methods Patients (n = 265) with mild or moderate OED were recruited into the double blind two-center cohort. Total-P16M and P16H were analyzed using the 115-bp MethyLight, TET-assisted bisulfite (TAB) methylation-specific PCR (MSP), and TAB-sequencing. Total-P16M-positive and P16H-negative samples were defined as true-P16M-positive. Progression of OEDs was monitored for a minimum 24 months follow-up period. Results P16H was detected in 23 of 73 (31.5%) total-P16M-positive OEDs. Follow-up information was obtained from 247 patients with an ultimate compliance rate of 93.2%. OED-derived squamous cell carcinomas were observed in 13.0% (32/247) patients during follow-up (median, 41.0 months). The cancer progression rate for total-P16M-positive patients was significantly increased when compared to total-P16M-negative patients [23.3% vs 8.6%; adjusted odds ratio = 2.67 (95% CI: 1.19–5.99)]. However, the cancer progression rates were similar between P16H- and true-P16M-positive OEDs [26.1% (6/23) vs 22.0% (11/50); odds ratio = 0.80 (95% CI: 0.22–2.92)]. The cancer-free survival was also similar for these patients. Conclusion P16H and true-P16M are similar biomarkers for determining malignant potential of OEDs. Discrimination of P16H from true-P16M, at least in OED, may be not necessary in clinical applications. Trial registration This study is registered prospectively in the U.S. National Institutes of Health Clinical Trials Protocol Registration System (trial number NCT02967120, available at https://ClinicalTrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02967120).