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The association of COVID-19 incidence with temperature, humidity, and UV radiation - A global multi-city analysis

Authors :
Luise Nottmeyer
Ben Armstrong
Rachel Lowe
Sam Abbott
Sophie Meakin
Kathleen M. O'Reilly
Rosa von Borries
Rochelle Schneider
Dominic Royé
Masahiro Hashizume
Mathilde Pascal
Aurelio Tobias
Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera
Eric Lavigne
Patricia Matus Correa
Nicolás Valdés Ortega
Jan Kynčl
Aleš Urban
Hans Orru
Niilo Ryti
Jouni Jaakkola
Marco Dallavalle
Alexandra Schneider
Yasushi Honda
Chris Fook Sheng Ng
Barrak Alahmad
Gabriel Carrasco-Escobar
Iulian Horia Holobâc
Ho Kim
Whanhee Lee
Carmen Íñiguez
Michelle L. Bell
Antonella Zanobetti
Joel Schwartz
Noah Scovronick
Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coélho
Paulo Hilario Nascimento Saldiva
Magali Hurtado Diaz
Antonio Gasparrini
Francesco Sera
European Commission
Source :
Digital.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC, instname
Publication Year :
2022
Publisher :
Elsevier, 2022.

Abstract

Background and aim The associations between COVID-19 transmission and meteorological factors are scientifically debated. Several studies have been conducted worldwide, with inconsistent findings. However, often these studies had methodological issues, e.g., did not exclude important confounding factors, or had limited geographic or temporal resolution. Our aim was to quantify associations between temporal variations in COVID-19 incidence and meteorological variables globally. Methods We analysed data from 455 cities across 20 countries from 3 February to 31 October 2020. We used a time-series analysis that assumes a quasi-Poisson distribution of the cases and incorporates distributed lag non-linear modelling for the exposure associations at the city-level while considering effects of autocorrelation, long-term trends, and day of the week. The confounding by governmental measures was accounted for by incorporating the Oxford Governmental Stringency Index. The effects of daily mean air temperature, relative and absolute humidity, and UV radiation were estimated by applying a meta-regression of local estimates with multi-level random effects for location, country, and climatic zone. Results We found that air temperature and absolute humidity influenced the spread of COVID-19 over a lag period of 15 days. Pooling the estimates globally showed that overall low temperatures (7.5 °C compared to 17.0 °C) and low absolute humidity (6.0 g/m3 compared to 11.0 g/m3) were associated with higher COVID-19 incidence (RR temp =1.33 with 95%CI: 1.08; 1.64 and RR AH =1.33 with 95%CI: 1.12; 1.57). RH revealed no significant trend and for UV some evidence of a positive association was found. These results were robust to sensitivity analysis. However, the study results also emphasise the heterogeneity of these associations in different countries. Conclusion Globally, our results suggest that comparatively low temperatures and low absolute humidity were associated with increased risks of COVID-19 incidence. However, this study underlines regional heterogeneity of weather-related effects on COVID-19 transmission.<br />This paper used Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) and Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) information. Hence, the authors would like to thank the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) for its data generation on behalf of the European Union.

Details

ISSN :
00489697
Database :
OpenAIRE
Journal :
Digital.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC, instname
Accession number :
edsair.doi.dedup.....f6ae5eff16825d9d63a590137037bd1d
Full Text :
https://doi.org/10.48350/172840