Study on Soil Erosion Driving Forces by Using (R)USLE Framework and Machine Learning: A Case Study in Southwest China

Soil erosion often leads to land degradation, agricultural production reduction, and environmental deterioration, which seriously restricts the sustainable development of regions. Clarifying the driving factors of soil erosion is the premise of preventing soil erosion. Given the lack of current research on the driving factors/force changes of soil erosion in different regions or under different erosion intensity grades, this paper pioneered to use machine learning methods to address this problem. Firstly, the widely used (Revised) Universal Soil Loss Equation ((R)USLE) framework was applied to simulate the spatial distribution of soil erosion. Then, the K-fold algorithm was used to evaluate the accuracy and stability of five machine learning algorithms for fitting soil erosion. The random forest (RF) method performed best, with average accuracy reaching 86.35%. Then, the Permutation Importance (PI) and the Partial Dependence Plot (PDP) methods based on RF were introduced to quantitatively analyze the main driving factors under different geological conditions and the driving force changes of each factor under different erosion intensity grades, respectively. Results showed that the main drivers of soil erosion in Chongqing and Guizhou were cover management factors (PI: 0.4672, 0.4788), while that in Sichuan was slope length and slope factor (PI: 0.6165). Under different erosion intensity grades, the driving force of each factor shows nonlinear and complex inhibitory or promoting effects with factor value changing. These findings can provide scientific guidance for the refined management of soil erosion, which is significant for halting or reversing land degradation and achieving sustainable use of land resources.