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Continent-wide tree fecundity driven by indirect climate effects

Authors :
Robert Daley
Amanda M. Schwantes
Samantha Sutton
Cathryn H. Greenberg
William H. Schlesinger
Erin Shanahan
Jalene M. LaMontagne
Jonathan Myers
Andreas P. Wion
Shubhi Sharma
Michał Bogdziewicz
Jordan Luongo
Kristin Legg
Inés Ibáñez
Don C. Bragg
Adrian J. Das
Catherine A. Gehring
Christopher M. Moore
Eliot J. B. McIntire
C. Lane Scher
Michael Dietze
Ethan Ready
Jill F. Johnstone
James A. Lutz
Robert R. Parmenter
Robert A. Andrus
Diana Macias
Orrin Myers
Natalie L. Cleavitt
Michael A. Steele
Miranda D. Redmond
Jerry F. Franklin
James S. Clark
Yves Bergeron
Yassine Messaoud
Kai Zhu
Sam Pearse
Johannes M. H. Knops
Chase L. Nuñez
Roman Zlotin
Georges Kunstler
Thomas T. Veblen
Istem Fer
Walter D. Koenig
Thomas G. Whitham
Timothy J. Fahey
Dale G. Brockway
Janneke HilleRisLambers
Christopher L. Kilner
Gregory S. Gilbert
Benoît Courbaud
Renata Poulton-Kamakura
Scott M. Pearson
Nathan L. Stephenson
Kyle C. Rodman
Qinfeng Guo
Jennifer J. Swenson
Emily V. Moran
Susan L. Cohen
Margaret Swift
C. D. Reid
Mélaine Aubry-Kientz
Amy V. Whipple
Nicholas School of the Environment
Duke University [Durham]
Laboratoire des EcoSystèmes et des Sociétés en Montagne (UR LESSEM)
Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)
University of Colorado [Boulder]
University of California [Merced]
University of California
Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue (UQAT)
Adam Mickiewicz University in Poznań (UAM)
USDA Forest Service Rocky Mountain Forest and Range Experiment Station
United States Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Cornell University [New York]
Department Biostatistics University of North Carolina
University of North Carolina [Chapel Hill] (UNC)
University of North Carolina System (UNC)-University of North Carolina System (UNC)
National Park Service
United States Geological Survey (USGS)
Boston University [Boston] (BU)
Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI)
University of Washington [Seattle]
Northern Arizona University [Flagstaff]
University of California [Santa Cruz] (UCSC)
Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center
US Forest Service
University of Michigan System
University of Saskatchewan [Saskatoon] (U of S)
Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University [Suzhou]
University of California [Berkeley]
DePaul University [Chicago]
Utah State University (USU)
The University of New Mexico [Albuquerque]
Pacific Forestry Centre
Natural Resources Canada (NRCan)
University of Quebec (INRS-EMT)
Colby College
Washington University in Saint Louis (WUSTL)
Max Planck Society
United States Department of the Interior
Fort Collins Science Center
Mars Hill University
Colorado State University [Fort Collins] (CSU)
University of Toronto
Wilkes University
Partenaires INRAE
Department of Geography, Bloomington
Russian and East European Institute, Bloomington
National Science Foundation (NSF) : DEB-1754443
Belmont Forum : 1854976
National Aeronautics & Space Administration (NASA) : AIST16-0052
AIST18-0063
ANR-18-MPGA-0004,FORBIC,Prévision du changement de la biodiversité(2018)
Source :
Nature Communications, Nature Communications, Nature Publishing Group, 2021, 12 (1), pp.1-11. ⟨10.1038/s41467-020-20836-3⟩, Nature Communications, 12, Nature Communications, Vol 12, Iss 1, Pp 1-11 (2021), Nature communications, vol 12, iss 1
Publication Year :
2021
Publisher :
HAL CCSD, 2021.

Abstract

Indirect climate effects on tree fecundity that come through variation in size and growth (climate-condition interactions) are not currently part of models used to predict future forests. Trends in species abundances predicted from meta-analyses and species distribution models will be misleading if they depend on the conditions of individuals. Here we find from a synthesis of tree species in North America that climate-condition interactions dominate responses through two pathways, i) effects of growth that depend on climate, and ii) effects of climate that depend on tree size. Because tree fecundity first increases and then declines with size, climate change that stimulates growth promotes a shift of small trees to more fecund sizes, but the opposite can be true for large sizes. Change the depresses growth also affects fecundity. We find a biogeographic divide, with these interactions reducing fecundity in the West and increasing it in the East. Continental-scale responses of these forests are thus driven largely by indirect effects, recommending management for climate change that considers multiple demographic rates.<br />Nature Communications, 12<br />ISSN:2041-1723

Details

Language :
English
ISSN :
20411723
Database :
OpenAIRE
Journal :
Nature Communications, Nature Communications, Nature Publishing Group, 2021, 12 (1), pp.1-11. ⟨10.1038/s41467-020-20836-3⟩, Nature Communications, 12, Nature Communications, Vol 12, Iss 1, Pp 1-11 (2021), Nature communications, vol 12, iss 1
Accession number :
edsair.doi.dedup.....fb39c566bf35a30703c05a04e7f57a3f