Potential shift in tree species composition after interaction of fire and drought in the Central Alps

The future trajectory of forest ecosystems under climate change is heavily debated. Previous studies on the impacts of climate change on forest ecosystems have focused mainly on direct effects of altered climatic conditions, whereas interactions with disturbance events have been largely neglected. The aim of this study is to explore interactions of drought with fire disturbance and to assess their effects on tree species shifts in the European Central Alps. Tree recruitment after a stand replacing wildfire in the Rhone valley, Switzerland, was measured along an altitudinal temperature moisture gradient. Recruitment was more successful in pioneer species (Betula pendula, Populus tremula and Salix appendiculata) than in pre-fire stand forming (PFSF) species (Larix decidua, Picea abies and Pinus sylvestris). Seedling and sapling density was not related to fire intensity, but it correlated with the distance to the forest edge in PFSF species. The window of opportunity for seedling establishment was short (1–2 years), and moisture deficit was the main limiting factor for tree recruitment at lower altitudes. We suggest that prolonged drought periods, as projected under continued global warming, will further aggravate tree recruitment success after fire disturbance at low altitudes of the Central Alps and may eventually lead to a shift from PFSF species to either more drought-tolerant species or to forest-free vegetation.