The role of aviation emissions in climate stabilization scenarios

Climate stabilization is embedded in UK and EU policy objectives and stabilization scenarios make assumptions over short and long-term emissions reductions. Air traffic, however, is increasing at 3 – 5% per year. The technological possibilities of reducing aircraft CO2 are limited and projected traffic growth overwhelms gains from fuel efficiency. MAGICC and a climate response model are used to examine the addition of aviation effects (CO2, O3, CH4, sulphate, soot and contrails) onto stabilization scenarios. Aviation makes a small but significant contribution to radiative forcing and global temperature responses. Whilst this is small globally, the necessary policy response of the three major centres of aviation (North America, Europe and the Far East) may be demanding; these emissions potentially form a large fraction of a country or region’s CO2 emissions. This may provoke further thinking over emissions trading as the way forward to incorporate international aviation emissions into Kyoto and post-Kyoto targets.