Are probabilistic methods a way to get rid of fudge factors?

Adhesive bonding is increasingly being considered by engineers for load-bearing joints to complement, or supplement, traditional mechanical fasteners for a large variety of structural materials, including fibre-reinforced polymers, timber, and steel. However, practitioners are still largely applying analysis and design methods, including codes and standards, that rely heavily on fudge factors. This is not due to the relative novelty of the joining technique, and the complexity of the associated mechanics. This paper guides the reader through some of the most important aspects of adhesively bonded joints, and the reasons why classical mechanics can only be applied in conjunction with fudge factors. Subsequently, the principles of fracture mechanics (FM) are presented; it is shown that, despite its conceptual strengths, FM is rather difficult to implement, as it introduces mechanical concepts practitioners are not familiar with. Then probabilistic methods (PM) are introduced; it is shown that PM can be considered as an extension of classical mechanics, as they can be easily implemented as a post-processing routine of the latter. Additionally, it is shown that PM, unlike FM, neither require specific test procedures for characterisation, nor complicated numerical analyses. Lastly, the paper offers a step-by-step guide for the implementation of PM for the dimensioning of adhesively bonded joints. The second part of this paper illustrates the latter analysis and design of adhesively bonded joints on a series of examples involving FRP, timber, and steel.