Searching for a New Silver Age in Russia : The Drivers and Impacts of Population Aging, Overview Report

Russia’s population is expected to age significantly over the next few decades. The coming decline in Russia’s working-age population will pose serious social and economic challenges, but it can also open up opportunities. Without adequate adjustments of policies and behaviors, an aging population can impair national growth and fiscal sustainability. These pessimistic forecasts, however, are based on the unrealistic assumption that individuals and government policy will not change. Achieving healthy, active, and prosperous aging will require policy changes across a host of areas. Policies to support women can both limit population aging and increase labor force participation. Changes in behavior and policy can greatly mitigate the impact of aging on growth and fiscal sustainability. Promoting adult education and better age-management human resources policies at the firm level is essential to improve the employment prospects for older workers and raise productivity across the age spectrum. This volume presents research from the World Bank on the impact of demographic trends in Russia. The first section focuses on the macroeconomic impacts of aging and considers how aging has affected gross domestic product (GDP) growth and convergence among Russian regions since the early 1990s; it also offers alternative approaches to forecasting the relationship between aging and growth. The second section, dealing with the relationship of human development outcomes and demographics, discusses how family policies can help women have more children, and still attain greater and longer participation in the labor force. The last part addresses the role of adult education in improving Russia’s competitiveness and enabling longer and more productive working lives. A final section pulls together the main conclusions.