MICROGRID MODELING ASSESSMENT FOR CLIMATE TRENDS AND WEATHER EVENTS

This report performs a gap analysis on microgrid models with respect to climate change risks at Naval installations. Six climate change risks are identified for the model analysis including drought, flooding, heat, cold, wildfires, and weather extremes. Each climate change risk is decomposed into ordered effects that inform the impacts that the climate risks may have on microgrids. The climate change risks, ordered effects, and the impacts on microgrids are used to analyze three microgrid models to determine if they adequately incorporate the six climate risks. A model analysis framework is developed to identify gaps in the approach of the models, the input parameters of the models, and the assumptions made in the models. The analysis demonstrates that gaps exist in each model when considering the climate change risks, the ordered effects, and the impacts to the microgrid. These gaps exist in all three models analyzed using the model analysis framework. The identified gaps are used to develop recommendations for ways to improve the incorporation of the climate change risks into microgrid models and the necessary research required to inform that data used in microgrid models. Naval Facilities Engineering Command Civilian, Department of the Navy Civilian, Department of the Navy Civilian, Department of the Navy Civilian, Department of the Navy Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.