The Predictive Power of Serum α-Fetoprotein and Des-γ-Carboxy Prothrombin for Survival Varies by Tumor Size in Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and des-γ-carboxy prothrombin (DCP) are frequently used as tumor markers in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The authors hypothesized different patient populations with varying tumor sizes would influence the predictive power of tumor markers for survival in HCC patients. The authors investigated the influence of tumor size on predictive powers of AFP and DCP. 181 patients underwent hepatectomy for HCC from 2003 to 2008 at Kobe University Hospital. Tumor markers were measured before and at 1 month post-hepatectomy. The Cox proportional-hazards model revealed that preoperative serum AFP was associated with survival; its effects depended on tumor size. Hazard ratios (HRs) for preoperative AFP were maximum for medium-sized HCC, and for DCP, HRs were maximum in small-sized tumors. Post-hepatectomy, both tumor markers were associated with survival, revealing significant interactions with tumor size. HRs for postoperative AFP were greater than 1 for relatively wide range tumors (3-11 cm). HRs for postoperative DCP increased with tumor size, with a strong prognostic predictive power for tumors5 cm. The predictive power of serum tumor markers varied by tumor size in HCC patients. By selecting the appropriate tumor marker, its predictive power can be improved.