Scores for sepsis detection and risk stratification - construction of a novel score using a statistical approach and validation of RETTS

BACKGROUND:To allow early identification of patients at risk of sepsis in the emergency department (ED), a variety of risk stratification scores and/or triage systems are used. The first aim of this study was to develop a risk stratification score for sepsis based upon vital signs and biomarkers using a statistical approach. Second, we aimed to validate the Rapid Emergency Triage and Treatment System (RETTS) for sepsis. RETTS combines vital signs with symptoms for risk stratification. METHODS:We retrospectively analysed data from two prospective, observational, multicentre cohorts of patients from studies of biomarkers in ED. A candidate risk stratification score called Sepsis Heparin-binding protein-based Early Warning Score (SHEWS) was constructed using the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selector Operator (LASSO) method. SHEWS and RETTS were compared to National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) for infection-related organ dysfunction, intensive care or death within the first 72h after admission (i.e. sepsis). RESULTS:506 patients with a diagnosed infection constituted cohort A, in which SHEWS was derived and RETTS was validated. 435 patients constituted cohort B of whom 184 had a diagnosed infection where both scores were validated. In both cohorts (A and B), AUC for infection-related organ dysfunction, intensive care or death was higher for NEWS2, 0.80 (95% CI 0.76-0.84) and 0.69 (95% CI 0.63-0.74), than RETTS, 0.74 (95% CI 0.70-0.79) and 0.55 (95% CI 0.49-0.60), p = 0.05 and p