An Extreme Value Theory approach for the early detection of time clusters with application to the surveillance of Salmonella

We propose a method to generate a warning system for the early detection of time clusters applied to public health surveillance data. This new method relies on the evaluation of a return period associated to any new count of a particular infection reported to a surveillance system. The method is applied to Salmonella surveillance in France and compared to the model developed by Farrington et al.
Comment: 21 pages, 6 figures