Using Logistic Regression to Analyze the Balance of a Game: The Case of StarCraft II

Recently, the market size of online game has been increasing astonishingly fast, and so does the importance of good game design. In online games, usually a human user competes with others, so the fairness of the game system to all users is of great importance not to lose interests of users on the game. Furthermore, the emergence and success of electronic sports (e-sports) and professional gaming which specially talented gamers compete with others draws more attention on whether they are competing in the fair environment. No matter how fierce the debates are in the game-design community, it is rarely the case that one employs statistical analysis to answer this question seriously. But considering the fact that we can easily gather large amount of user behavior data on games, it seems potentially beneficial to make use of this data to aid making decisions on design problems of games. Actually, modern games do not aim to perfectly design the game at once: rather, they first release the game, and then monitor users' behavior to better balance the game. In such a scenario, statistical analysis can be particularly helpful. Specifically, we chose to analyze the balance of StarCraft II, which is a very successful recently-released real-time strategy (RTS) game. It is a central icon in current e-Sports and professional gaming community: from April 1st to 15th, there were 18 tournaments of StarCraft II. However, there is endless debate on whether the winner of the tournament is actually superior to others, or it is largely due to certain design flaws of the game. In this paper, we aim to answer such a question using traditional statistical tool, logistic regression.