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Early warning signal for interior crises in excitable systems
- Source :
- Phys. Rev. E 96, 042211 (2017)
- Publication Year :
- 2017
-
Abstract
- The ability to reliably predict critical transitions in dynamical systems is a long-standing goal of diverse scientific communities. Previous work focused on early warning signals related to local bifurcations (critical slowing down) and non-bifurcation type transitions. We extend this toolbox and report on a characteristic scaling behavior (critical attractor growth) which is indicative of an impending global bifurcation, an interior crisis in excitable systems. We demonstrate our early warning signal in a conceptual climate model as well as in a model of coupled neurons known to exhibit extreme events. We observed critical attractor growth prior to interior crises of chaotic as well as strange-nonchaotic attractors. These observations promise to extend the classes of transitions that can be predicted via early warning signals.<br />Comment: 6 pages, 4 figures
Details
- Database :
- arXiv
- Journal :
- Phys. Rev. E 96, 042211 (2017)
- Publication Type :
- Report
- Accession number :
- edsarx.1711.04594
- Document Type :
- Working Paper
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.96.042211