Current observations are insufficient to confidently associate the binary black hole merger GW190521 with AGN J124942.3+344929

Recently, Graham et al. (2020) identified ZTF19abanrhr as a candidate electromagnetic counterpart to the binary black hole merger GW190521. The authors argue that the observations are consistent with a kicked binary black hole interacting with the accretion disk of the activate galactic nucleus AGN J124942.3+344929. If a real association (rather than happenstance), this has implications for the sources of LIGO/Virgo binary mergers, future prospects for electromagnetic counterparts, and measurements of the expansion rate of the Universe. In this Letter, we provide a re-analysis of the multi-messenger coincidence significance based on the localisation overlap and find that that the odds of a common source for GW190521 andZTF19abanrhr range between 1 and 12 depending on the waveform model used; we consider this insufficient evidence to warrant confidently associating GW190521 with ZTF19abanrhr.
Comment: 5 pages, 1 figure, 2 tables, submitted to MNRASL. Updated following review