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Forward-Backward Latent State Inference for Hidden Continuous-Time semi-Markov Chains
- Publication Year :
- 2022
-
Abstract
- Hidden semi-Markov Models (HSMM's) - while broadly in use - are restricted to a discrete and uniform time grid. They are thus not well suited to explain often irregularly spaced discrete event data from continuous-time phenomena. We show that non-sampling-based latent state inference used in HSMM's can be generalized to latent Continuous-Time semi-Markov Chains (CTSMC's). We formulate integro-differential forward and backward equations adjusted to the observation likelihood and introduce an exact integral equation for the Bayesian posterior marginals and a scalable Viterbi-type algorithm for posterior path estimates. The presented equations can be efficiently solved using well-known numerical methods. As a practical tool, variable-step HSMM's are introduced. We evaluate our approaches in latent state inference scenarios in comparison to classical HSMM's.<br />Comment: 10 content pages, 2 figures, to be published at NeurIPS 2022
- Subjects :
- Statistics - Machine Learning
Computer Science - Machine Learning
Subjects
Details
- Database :
- arXiv
- Publication Type :
- Report
- Accession number :
- edsarx.2210.09058
- Document Type :
- Working Paper