Long-Term Density Trend in the Mesosphere and Lower Thermosphere from Occultations of the Crab Nebula with X-Ray Astronomy Satellites

We present long-term density trends of the Earth's upper atmosphere at altitudes between 71 and 116 km, based on atmospheric occultations of the Crab Nebula observed with X-ray astronomy satellites, ASCA, RXTE, Suzaku, NuSTAR, and Hitomi. The combination of the five satellites provides a time period of 28 yr from 1994 to 2022. To suppress seasonal and latitudinal variations, we concentrate on the data taken in autumn (49< doy <111) and spring (235< doy <297) in the northern hemisphere with latitudes of 0--40 degrees. With this constraint, local times are automatically limited either around noon or midnight. We obtain four sets (two seasons times two local times) of density trends at each altitude layer. We take into account variations due to a linear trend and the 11-yr solar cycle using linear regression techniques. Because we do not see significant differences among the four trends, we combine them to provide a single vertical profile of trend slopes. We find a negative density trend of roughly -5 %/decade at every altitude. This is in reasonable agreement with inferences from settling rate of the upper atmosphere. In the 100--110 km altitude, we found an exceptionally high density decline of about -12 %/decade. This peak may be the first observational evidence for strong cooling due to water vapor and ozone near 110 km, which was first identified in a numerical simulation by Akmaev et al. (2006). Further observations and numerical simulations with suitable input parameters are needed to establish this feature.
Comment: 38 pages, 9 figures, accepted for publication in Journal of Geophysical Research - Space Physics