Evaluating the potential impacts of grey seal predation and fishery bycatch/discards on cod productivity on the Western Scotian Shelf and in the Bay of Fundy

The recovery of many groundfish stocks throughout the Northwest Atlantic has been impeded by elevated natural (i.e., non-fishing) mortality (M) among older/larger individuals. The causes of elevated mortality are not well known, though predation by rapidly growing grey seal herds and unreported fishing are thought to be possible drivers of mortality for Atlantic Cod (Gadus morhua) on the Western Scotian Shelf and in the Bay of Fundy (known as "4X5Y cod") and in nearby ecosystems. We developed a statistical catch-at-age model for 4X5Y cod that accounted for both grey seal predation and estimated bycatch/discards to evaluate the degree to which either of these factors may influence cod mortality. The model was fit over a range of predation and discarding scenarios to account for uncertainties and a lack of data for these processes. We found that most cod M remained unaccounted for unless cod comprised a large proportion (>0.45) of the grey seal diet by weight. If the reported bycatch estimates are taken as accurate, then the magnitude of cod discards from non-directed fisheries was minor, though these estimates are highly uncertain.
Comment: 27 pages, 4 tables, 10 figures, 2 appendices