Identity Collapse? Realignment of Taiwanese Voters in the 2024 Presidential Elections on Social Media

The 2024 Taiwanese Presidential Election is not just a critical geopolitical event, it also engages with long-standing debate in politics regarding the factors that lead to the rise of new political parties and candidates. In 2021, the Economist called Taiwan "the most dangerous place on earth" due to its critical role in a fragile supply chain. Additionally, a four-candidate race has emerged in a traditionally bipartisan election which begs the question: how will voters realign given the choice of four candidates? Leveraging more than a million posts on social media, we analyze user (predominantly Taiwanese) discourse and engagement along the axes of national identity, issue topic, and partisan alignment. Results reveal alternative candidates (Ko and Gou) draw attention from the fringes rather than the center relative to national identity, and traditional candidates derive more engagement from the traditional media and salience to geopolitical issues. Crucially, in-group references generate more engagement than out-group references, contrary to Western-based studies. We discuss how the dissolution of Taiwan's single-issue society may not just lead to more viable candidates and multi-issue discourse, but the misalignment of national and partisan identity may heal deep-seated partisan cleavages.
Comment: 23 pages