Identifying Drivers of Predictive Aleatoric Uncertainty

Explainability and uncertainty quantification are two pillars of trustable artificial intelligence. However, the reasoning behind uncertainty estimates is generally left unexplained. Identifying the drivers of uncertainty complements explanations of point predictions in recognizing model limitations and enhances trust in decisions and their communication. So far, explanations of uncertainties have been rarely studied. The few exceptions rely on Bayesian neural networks or technically intricate approaches, such as auxiliary generative models, thereby hindering their broad adoption. We present a simple approach to explain predictive aleatoric uncertainties. We estimate uncertainty as predictive variance by adapting a neural network with a Gaussian output distribution. Subsequently, we apply out-of-the-box explainers to the model's variance output. This approach can explain uncertainty influences more reliably than literature baselines, which we evaluate in a synthetic setting with a known data-generating process. We further adapt multiple metrics from conventional XAI research to uncertainty explanations. We quantify our findings with a nuanced benchmark analysis that includes real-world datasets. Finally, we apply our approach to an age regression model and discover reasonable sources of uncertainty. Overall, we explain uncertainty estimates with little modifications to the model architecture and demonstrate that our approach competes effectively with more intricate methods.
Comment: Simon Witzke and Pascal Iversen contributed equally