Nonparametric Stochastic Analysis of Dynamic Frequency in Power Systems: A Generalized Ito Process Model

The large-scale integration of intermittent renewable energy has brought serious challenges to the frequency security of power systems. In this paper, a novel nonparametric stochastic analysis method of system dynamic frequency is proposed to accurately analyze the impact of renewable energy uncertainty on power system frequency security, independent of any parametric distribution assumption. The nonparametric uncertainty of renewable generation disturbance is quantified based on probabilistic forecasting. Then, a novel generalized Ito process is proposed as a linear combination of several Gaussian Ito processes, which can represent any probability distribution. Furthermore, a stochastic model of power system frequency response is constructed by considering virtual synchronization control of wind power. On basis of generalized Ito process, the complex nonlinear stochastic differential equation is transformed into a linear combination of several linear stochastic differential equations to approximate nonparametric probability distribution of the system dynamic frequency. Finally, the validity of the proposed method is verified by the single-machine system and IEEE 39-Bus system.