Life cycle energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions in China's road transport sector : future trends and policy implications

A critical evaluation of the national profile of energy supply and demand and the associated greenhouse gas (OHO) emissions in China has been conducted. The contribution of the transport sector in China, the road transport sector in particular, to China's overall energy demand and OHO emissions has been assessed and compared with values for other countries. Approaches for reducing energy demand and OHO emissions in the road transport sector worldwide have been reviewed. A detailed bottom-up model has been developed using 'LEAP' software, to estimate future energy demand and OHO emissions in China's road transport sector, incorporating China's recent efforts in alternative fuel promotion. Modelling approach and historical data used have been tested and verified to ensure reliability. Two scenarios have been designed to describe the future strategies relating to the development of China's road transport sector between 2005 and 2030. The 'Business as Usual' scenario is used as a baseline reference scenario, in which the government is assumed to do nothing to influence the long-term trends of road transport energy demand. The 'Best Case' scenario is considered to be the most optimized case where a series of available reduction measures are assumed to be implemented. Energy demand and OHO emissions in China's road transport sector up to 2030 are estimated in these two scenarios. The reduction potential and the relative contribution of each measure have been estimated. A 'life cycle assessment' model for the road transport sector has been developed. The life cycle energy demand and OHO emissions in China's road transport sector are estimated using the model. The reduction potential and the relative contribution of each measure have been re-assessed from a life cycle perspective. Potential impacts on global oil resources, availability and prices are discussed. The importance of life cycle assessment in evaluating the effects of different reduction measures is discussed. Policy implications are presented.