Modelling of energy transition as an optimization problem: is it possible to achieve energy transition in France without renewable energy research?

To illustrate the energy transition concept and its associated stakes, we used the mathematical optimization formalism and designed a toy-model applied to the French energy system. This approach is not predictive but lays on four pedagogical scenarios considering industrial capacity and resources limitation, and recycling process to characterise a field of possibilities. Thus, productivity limit and lifetime of solar panels emerge as crucial factors in the short term. Massive recycling process seems to delay material scarcity effect to long term. In contrast, increasing demand remains a significant burden to energy production sustainability.