Impacts of the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project on Land Surface Temperature and Fractional Vegetation Coverage in the Danjiang River Basin

The Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project is a critical infrastructure that ensures optimal water resource distribution across river basins and safeguards the livelihood of people in China. This study investigated its effects on the land surface temperature (LST) and fractional vegetation coverage (FVC) in the Danjiang River Basin. Moreover, it examined the spatial and temporal patterns of this project, providing a scientific basis for the safe supply of water and ecological preservation. We used the improved interpolation of mean anomaly (IMA) method based on the digital elevation model (DEM) to reconstruct LST while FVC was estimated using the image element dichotomous model. Our findings indicated a general increase in the average LST in the Danjiang River Basin post-project implementation. During both wet and dry seasons, the cooling effect was primarily observed in the south-central region during the daytime, with extreme values of 6.1 °C and 5.9 °C. Conversely, during the nighttime, the cooling effect was more prevalent in the northern region, with extreme values of 3.0 °C and 2.3 °C. In contrast, the warming effect during both seasons was predominantly located in the northern region during the daytime, with extreme values of 5.3 °C and 5.5 °C. At night, the warming effect was chiefly observed in the south-central region, with extreme values of 5.8 °C and 5.9 °C. FVC displayed a seasonal trend, with higher values in the wet season and overall improvement over time. Statistical analysis revealed a negative correlation between vegetation change and daytime temperature variations in both periods (r = −0.184, r = −0.195). Furthermore, a significant positive correlation existed between vegetation change and nighttime temperature changes (r = 0.315, r = 0.328). Overall, the project contributed to regulating LST, fostering FVC development, and enhancing ecological stability in the Danjiang River Basin.