Anomalously weak intensity of tropical cyclones striking eastern China over the past two millennia

Abstract Anthropogenic climate warming is predicted to increase the intensity of global tropical cyclones (TCs) on decadal timescales, known as the ‘temperature-TC intensity’ paradigm. However, no proxy is currently available to directly quantify TC intensity in the northwestern Pacific region over centennial to millennial timescales. Here, we reconstruct the intensity of past TCs inferred from event-beds detected in two sedimentary systems in eastern China spanning approximately 1910 to 645 yr BP using an instrumental-calibrated technique, thereby encompassing a sufficiently wide range of temperatures to test the paradigm in the time domain. Intriguingly, our two intensity indices, based on flooding depth and wind speed, provide the initial quantitative evidence that TC intensity in eastern China has been anomalously weak since around 1485 ± 45 yr BP, with a reduction of approximately 30 ± 8% in intensity, despite no concurrent temperature shift. This reduction appears to have been pre-conditioned by a combined influence of a weaker El Niño-Southern Oscillation, a stronger Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, and an increased level of Saharan dust. We suggest that the magnitudes of these factors may have crossed a tipping point and have not reverted to their pre-shift levels since that time, resulting in their impact on TC intensity exceeding that of temperature by triggering changes in the oceanic and atmospheric state within the tropical Pacific region where TCs originate.