Spatial Pattern of Host Tree Size, Rather than of Host Tree Itself, Affects the Infection Likelihood of a Fungal Stem Disease

The spatial pattern of diseased forest trees is a product of the spatial pattern of host trees and the disease itself. Previous studies have focused on describing the spatial pattern of diseased host trees, and it remains largely unknown whether an antecedent spatial pattern of host/nonhost trees affects the infection pattern of a disease and how large the effect sizes of the spatial pattern of host/nonhost trees and host size are. The results from trivariate random labeling showed that the antecedent pattern of the host ash tree, Fraxinus mandshurica, but not of nonhost tree species, impacted the infection pattern of a stem fungal disease caused by Inonotus hispidus. To investigate the effect size of the spatial pattern of ash trees, we employed the SADIE (Spatial Analysis by Distance IndicEs) aggregation index and clustering index as predictors in the GLMs. Globally, the spatial pattern (vi index) of ash trees did not affect the infection likelihood of the focal tree; however, the spatial pattern of DBH (diameter at breast height) of ash trees significantly affected the infection likelihood of the focal tree. We sampled a series of circular plots with different radii to investigate the spatial pattern effect of host size on the infection likelihood of the focal tree locally. The results showed that the location (patch/gap) of the DBH of the focal tree, rather than that of the focal tree itself, significantly affected its infection likelihood in most plots of the investigated sizes. A meta-analysis was employed to settle the discrepancy between plots of different sizes, which led to results consistent with those of global studies. The results from meta-regression showed that plot size had no significant effects.