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Exploring the worldwide impact of COVID-19 on conflict risk under climate change
- Source :
- Heliyon, Vol 9, Iss 6, Pp e17182- (2023)
- Publication Year :
- 2023
- Publisher :
- Elsevier, 2023.
-
Abstract
- Objectives: Understand whether and how the COVID-19 pandemic affects the risk of different types of conflict worldwide in the context of climate change. Methodology: Based on the database of armed conflict, COVID-19, detailed climate, and non-climate data covering the period 2020–2021, we applied Structural Equation Modeling specifically to reorganize the links between climate, COVID-19, and conflict risk. Moreover, we used the Boosted Regression Tree method to simulate conflict risk under the influence of multiple factors. Findings: The transmission risk of COVID-19 seems to decrease as the temperature rises. Additionally, COVID-19 has a substantial worldwide impact on conflict risk, albeit regional and conflict risk variations exist. Moreover, when testing a one-month lagged effect, we find consistency across regions, indicating a positive influence of COVID-19 on demonstrations (protests and riots) and a negative relationship with non-state and violent conflict risk. Conclusion: COVID-19 has a complex effect on conflict risk worldwide under climate change. Implications: Laying the theoretical foundation of how COVID-19 affects conflict risk and providing some inspiration for the implementation of relevant policies.
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 24058440
- Volume :
- 9
- Issue :
- 6
- Database :
- Directory of Open Access Journals
- Journal :
- Heliyon
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- edsdoj.0e829974c1bf46ef9a476f129424902a
- Document Type :
- article
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e17182