Incidence and predictors of ventilator-associated pneumonia using a competing risk analysis: a single-center prospective cohort study in Egypt

Abstract Background Ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) is a challenging nosocomial problem in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) that face barriers to healthcare delivery and resource availability. This study aimed to examine the incidence and predictors of VAP in Egypt as an example of an LMIC while considering death as a competing event. Methods The study included patients aged ≥ 18 years who underwent mechanical ventilation (MV) in an intensive care unit (ICU) at a tertiary care, university hospital in Egypt between May 2020 and January 2023. We excluded patients who died or were transferred from the ICU within 48 h of admission. We determined the VAP incidence based on clinical suspicion, radiological findings, and positive lower respiratory tract microbiological cultures. The multivariate Fine-Gray subdistribution hazard model was used to examine the predictors of VAP while considering death as a competing event. Results Overall, 315 patients were included in this analysis. Sixty-two patients (19.7%) developed VAP (17.1 per 1000 ventilator days). The Fine-Gray subdistribution hazard model, after adjustment for potential confounders, revealed that emergency surgery (subdistribution hazard ratio [SHR]: 2.11, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.25–3.56), reintubation (SHR: 3.74, 95% CI: 2.23–6.28), blood transfusion (SHR: 2.23, 95% CI: 1.32–3.75), and increased duration of MV (SHR: 1.04, 95% CI: 1.03–1.06) were independent risk factors for VAP development. However, the new use of corticosteroids was not associated with VAP development (SHR: 0.94, 95% CI: 0.56–1.57). Klebsiella pneumoniae was the most common causative microorganism, followed by Pseudomonas aeruginosa. Conclusion The incidence of VAP in Egypt was high, even in the ICU at a university hospital. Emergency surgery, reintubation, blood transfusion, and increased duration of MV were independently associated with VAP. Robust antimicrobial stewardship and infection control strategies are urgently needed in Egypt.