Intestinal flora and inflammatory bowel disease: Causal relationships and predictive models

Background: Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), including Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis, is significantly influenced by intestinal flora. Understanding the genetic and microbiotic interplay is crucial for IBD prediction and treatment. Methods: We used Mendelian randomization (MR), transcriptomic analysis, and machine learning techniques, integrating data from the MiBioGen Consortium and various GWAS datasets. SNPs associated with intestinal flora were mapped to genes, with LASSO regression refining gene selection. Differentially expressed genes (DEGs) and immune infiltration patterns were identified through transcriptomic analysis. Six machine learning models were used for predictive modeling. Findings: MR analysis identified 25 gut microbiota classifications causally related to IBD. SNP mapping and gene expression analysis highlighted 24 significant genes. Drug target MR and colocalization validated these genes' causal relationships with IBD. Key pathways identified included the PI3K-Akt signaling pathway and epithelial-mesenchymal transition. Immune infiltration analysis revealed distinct patterns between high and low LASSO score groups. Machine learning models demonstrated high predictive value, with soft voting enhancing reliability. Interpretation: By integrating MR, transcriptomic analysis, and sophisticated machine learning approaches, this study elucidates the causal relationships between intestinal flora and IBD. The application of machine learning not only enhanced predictive modeling but also offered new insights into IBD pathogenesis, highlighted potential therapeutic targets, and established a robust framework for predicting IBD onset.