Assessing spatial-Temporal dynamics of vulnerability of protected areas in Iran to multiple environmental hazards

Protected areas play a crucial role in safeguarding biodiversity and ecosystem services. However, they face mounting challenges from environmental pressures. This study examines the Oshtorankooh Protected Area (OPA) in Iran, evaluating its vulnerability to various environmental hazards from 2010 to 2020.A comprehensive set of variables, including physiographic, climatic, geological, edaphic, vegetative, hydrological, and socio-economic factors, were utilized to compute 45 vulnerability indicators across three dimensions: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity for 2010 and 2020. Maps of these indicators were created and standardized, with weights assigned using the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP). Composite indices for exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity were then developed by integrating these weighted and standardized maps.The vulnerability indices for grid cells within the OPA enabled the identification of spatial vulnerability patterns, highlighting heightened vulnerability in the northern and western sectors influenced by factors such as drought variability, social vulnerability, evapotranspiration rates, spring discharge, and runoff dynamics. Results indicate a notable increase in vulnerability over the study period, with index values rising from 0.76 in 2010 to 2.04 in 2020. This spatially explicit vulnerability assessment underscores the dynamic nature of vulnerabilities within protected areas, emphasizing the necessity for adaptive management strategies. The findings stress the importance of tailored, evidence-based management approaches to mitigate risks and preserve ecological and socio-economic values. Implementing adaptive management strategies informed by this assessment can bolster the resilience of protected areas against environmental threats, thereby advancing global conservation efforts.