Modeling the distribution of pine wilt disease in China using the ensemble models MaxEnt and CLIMEX

Abstract Pine wilt disease (PWD) is a devastating plant disease caused by the pinewood nematode (PWN, Bursaphelenchus xylophilus) that is transmitted by several beetle species in the genus, Monochamus. Once present, the disease is difficult to control. Prevention rather than control is regarded as an effective strategy for PWD management. Central to this prevention strategy is the ability to predict the potential distribution of the disease. Here, we employed an integrated MaxEnt and CLIMEX approach to model the potential distribution of PWD under various climate‐change scenarios. Our results indicate that rising temperatures and lower humidity under climate change will render some of the northern regions of China more suitable for the nematode and these beetles, causing the gradual northward movement of PWD. Furthermore, suitable habitats for three pine species, Pinus massoniana, P. taiwanensis and P. shurbergia, overlap with PWN and Monochamus, suggesting that these three species are potentially at high risk of PWD. Thus, PWD management should target the northern regions of China and the three pine species that are most susceptible to PWD.