Global Population Aging, National Development Level, and Vulnerability to the Pandemic

Bocong Yuan,1 Jiannan Li,2 Hairong Zhao,1 Guojun Zeng1 1School of Tourism Management, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, People’s Republic of China; 2Institute of Advanced Studies in Humanities and Social Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, People’s Republic of ChinaCorrespondence: Jiannan LiBeijing Normal University, 19 Xinjiekouwai Street, Haidian District, Beijing, People’s Republic of ChinaEmail 91122020111@bnu.edu.cnGuojun ZengSun Yat-Sen University, 135 West Xingang Road, Haizhu District, Guangzhou, People’s Republic of ChinaEmail zenggj@mail.sysu.edu.cnPurpose: This study examined the roles of population aging and national development level in affecting different phases of novel coronavirus disease development with a view to advancing preparedness and corresponding policy.Methods: Regression analysis was conducted using multisource data from the World Bank and Johns Hopkins COVID-19 Dashboard.Results: Population aging is positively associated with confirmed cases of day-10, day-20, and day-30. The positive association between population aging and death does not emerge until day-20. Countries with a higher proportion of older males face higher risks of death.. Countries with a higher proportion of males aged 70– 74 years are at the highest risk of confirmed cases. National development level is not associated with confirmed cases, but developing countries face significantly higher risks of death of day-10 and day-20.Conclusion: Prevention and control policies for older adults and underdeveloped areas and sex differences need to be studied.Keywords: population aging, sex difference, policy preparedness, national development level, pandemic