Relationship of diabetes, heart failure, and N‐terminal pro‐B‐type natriuretic peptide with cardiovascular outcomes in patients with atrial fibrillation

Abstract Aims We aim to explore the relationship of heart failure (HF) and diabetes with cardiovascular (CV) death or hospitalization for HF (HHF) and to study the clinical utility of N‐terminal pro‐B‐type natriuretic peptide (NT‐proBNP) in an unselected patient population with atrial fibrillation (AF). Methods and results Patients with AF admitted to a tertiary academic center between January 2005 and July 2019 were identified through a search of electronic health records. We used Cox regression models adjusted for age, sex, estimated glomerular filtration rate, diabetes, HF, body mass index, prior myocardial infarction, coronary artery disease, hypertension, smoking, C‐reactive protein, and low‐density lipoprotein cholesterol. To select the most informative variables, we performed a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator Cox regression with 10‐fold cross‐validation. In total, 7412 patients (median age 70 years, 39.7% female) were included in this analysis and followed over a median of 4.5 years. Both diabetes [adjusted (Adj.) HR 1.87, 95% CI 1.55–2.25] and HF (Adj. HR 2.57, 95% CI 2.22–2.98) were significantly associated with CV death/HHF after multivariable adjustment. Compared with patients with diabetes, HF patients had a higher risk of HHF but a similar risk of CV and all‐cause death. NT‐proBNP showed good discriminatory performance (area under the curve 0.78, 95% CI 0.77–0.80) and the addition of NT‐proBNP to the covariates used for adjustment resulted in a significant area under the curve improvement (Δ = 0.04, P